As of the evening of Nov. 1, Anchorage had recorded 0.9 inch of snow since Sept. 1. The 1991 to 2020 normal for that stretch is 6.3 inches, and the National Weather Service Anchorage climate summary for that day listed snow depth at zero.
That deficit is the backdrop for a South Anchorage November that runs on preparation instead of kilometers. The ski calendar for the month is full of dated events: wax benches, gear pick-ups, coach training, a wax fundraiser at Service High. Almost none of it needs snow. The trails do.
Five inches behind on the first of the month
The season did start on time. Alaska's News Source reported the first official measurable snowfall as 0.1 inch on Thursday, Oct. 1. Very little came after it. By Nov. 1 the season total stood 5.4 inches below normal, and Nov. 1 brought no new snow even though the normal for that single day is 0.3 inch.
Those figures come from the official Anchorage reporting station, not from the Hillside. Even so, they show how much ground the season has to make up. The Nordic Skiing Association of Anchorage puts the city's average first grooming day at Nov. 11. On its trails page, the group says base preparation starts in July with tree work, brush clearing and two rounds of mowing. The second pass mulches fallen leaves so the first snow bonds to frozen ground instead of sliding on a wet layer. That preparation only pays off once snow arrives.
What a strong El Niño has meant here before
This year's slow start comes with a forecast attached. On Oct. 8 the Climate Prediction Center's ENSO discussion carried an El Niño Advisory. It said a strong to very strong event was likely to last through January to March 2027, with the odds staying above 83 percent. A week later, NOAA's winter outlook favored warmer than average temperatures for Alaska from December through February, along with elevated odds of drier than average conditions for much of the state. NOAA's outlook covers seasonal temperature and total precipitation. It doesn't forecast snowfall totals.
The local ski community already has the forecast in mind. NSAA Executive Director Kikkan Randall put it this way in the November 2026 issue of The Alaska Nordic Skier:
"Of course, we'd be remiss not to mention the elephant in the grooming shed: a strong El Niño is expected, and no one can say for sure what that will mean for snow."
Past winters give a sense of the range. In a 2018 article, the Anchorage Daily News reported that the 2014 to 2015 El Niño winter gave Anchorage what was then its lowest snowfall on record, 25.1 inches. The following winter, 2015 to 2016, ranked fifth-lowest at 38.3 inches. For comparison, the 2011 to 2012 La Niña winter set the record at the time with 134.5 inches. Alaska Public Media's 2023 coverage described the same pattern of warmer winters and below-normal snowfall. It also noted that precipitation is harder to forecast and that heavy local snow can still happen during an El Niño year.
A more specific read is coming soon. The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy has scheduled Rick Thoman's Alaska climate outlook briefing for Friday, Nov. 20, from noon to 1 p.m. AKST, covering the strong El Niño and the federal outlook.
The Hillside loops that depend on the sky
The Hillside system is the main reason this forecast matters so much in South Anchorage. NSAA's trail responsibility chart assigns winter maintenance of the Hillside and Far North Bicentennial Park cross-country trails to NSAA. NSAA's maps list these routes, including the four lighted loops:
| Route | Distance | Lit |
|---|---|---|
| Hillside Loop | 2.4 km | Yes |
| Besh Loop | 2.5 km | Yes |
| Junior Nordic Loop | 1.4 km | Yes |
| Randy's Loop | 1.7 km | Yes |
| Spencer with Bubble | 8.3 km | No |
The distances come from NSAA's published maps. The Hillside and Spencer map shows the parking lot off Abbott Road near Service High and labels both the Hillside Lighted Loop and the Service Lighted Loop. NSAA describes Spencer Loop as a challenging, scenic trail along Campbell Creek Gorge and the hillside north of Hilltop Ski Area.
Up the road, Glen Alps works the same way. Alaska State Parks says cross-country skiing is allowed throughout Chugach State Park and that about 15 miles of loops from Glen Alps are among the trails that may be groomed when time and resources allow. The agency also asks Glen Alps visitors not to block local access, because parking there is limited.
Kincaid's snow guns follow a set sequence
NSAA's documented snowmaking system is across town at Kincaid Park, and it gives the season a starting point that doesn't depend on a storm. NSAA has run it since the winter of 2014 to 2015 and uses it to cover about 6 kilometers of trail. Snowmaking usually begins in mid-November. It still needs favorable weather, and when conditions cooperate, covering the full network takes 20 to 25 days.
The sequence matters if you're planning a first ski of the season. Crews start with the green loop, about 0.9 kilometer, which can be skiable in three to four days. Next comes the yellow loop through the stadium and the Lekisch tunnel, which brings the combined total to about 1.9 kilometers. The stadium, the Gong Hill and biathlon-range trails, and the purple and blue trails north of the chalet follow. The black trail, made up of Lower Roller Coaster and Dark Alley, goes last.
In a season like this one, the first groomed kilometers many Hillside households ski could be a 0.9-kilometer loop of manufactured snow at Kincaid, with the Abbott Road lot still waiting on a storm.
The November calendar that doesn't wait for snow
Even with bare trails, the month is full. Each of these dates comes from its organizer:
- Friday, Nov. 13, 5 to 8 p.m. A free ski wax clinic at the Kincaid Park Wax Bunker, hosted by NSAA and Alaska Mountaineering and Hiking.
- Saturday, Nov. 14, 3 to 6 p.m. Junior Nordic gear pick-up No. 2, also at the Kincaid Wax Bunker.
- Week of Nov. 16. Junior Nordic coach training.
- Friday, Nov. 20, noon to 1 p.m. AKST. Rick Thoman's ACCAP climate outlook briefing.
- Saturday, Nov. 21, noon to 3 p.m. The Service High School Nordic Ski Team wax fundraiser. It's open to downhill, cross-country and backcountry skis as well as snowboards. Organizers ask that you scrape off old wax first and clean bases with liquid wax remover if you can. Use the entrance at the back of the school near the football field. There's also a bake sale, and donations are welcome.
- Friday through Sunday, Nov. 27 to 29, 5 to 8 p.m. Zoo Lights opening weekend at the Alaska Zoo.
- Monday, Nov. 30. An online-only Cyber Monday sale on Zoo Lights tickets at 40 percent off.
- Week of Nov. 30. Junior Nordic practices begin.
Junior Nordic is the Hillside thread running through the list. NSAA reports that registration opened the morning of Oct. 3 and that the Hillside afternoon sites filled first. The Saturday groups at Kincaid and Hillside have also been popular. Spots remain at other times and locations, and registration stays open into December. Behind the scenes, Alaska Mountaineering and Hiking stone-ground more than two dozen of the program's rental skis and helped with repairs. Dondee's Laundry washed the program's jackets at no cost.
Zoo Lights runs well beyond opening weekend. The Alaska Zoo lists Dec. 4 to 6 and Dec. 11 to 13, then every night from Dec. 18 through Jan. 3 except Dec. 25, then weekends through Feb. 28. The Feb. 12 to 14 weekend is billed as "Valentine's Lights." Admission is $25 for ages 16 and up, $15 for ages 15 and under, and free for children 2 and under. Members age 3 and older get 30 percent off. The displays are set along the zoo's maintained trails.
When a real storm finally reaches the Hillside, NSAA's trails page links to the live grooming map and the Nordic Pulse reports, which show when each loop was last groomed.
Living near the Abbott Road trailhead or the Glen Alps access roads changes how a winter like this feels, and our team knows these Hillside corners season by season. If you're weighing how close to the lighted loops you want to live, or you'd like to get a Hillside home ready for buyers ahead of ski season, Mehner Weiser Real Estate Group would be glad to talk it through. We Welcome You Home. Schedule a Consultation.
